Overnight the European Commission outlined its
proposal for formally communicating the EU’s initial Paris agreement emissions reductions target to other countries. While many of the details are not new, and this is not the final word from the EU, the formal statement has implications for Australia’s own target setting process which the government
announced at the end of last year.
BACKGROUND
Two years ago in Warsaw all countries agreed to initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their new post-2020 emissions reductions targets (known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions – INDCs) for the 2015 Paris climate agreement. These are to be advanced well ahead of Paris ( by April 2015 for most). Last year in
Lima, all countries also agreed to the guidelines for how governments should put forward their initial offers.
Spurred on by the prospects of Paris, in October 2014, the European Union agreed a comprehensive package of measures to reduce emissions out to 2030. It agreed to an “‘at least 40 per cent” emissions reduction (based on 1990 levels) by 2030. (Click on the EU
here for details.)
Europe was the first of the major economies to announce its offer. The US and China agreed to the initial outlines of their own offers for Paris shortly after. None of these countries have officially translated or tabled these domestic decisions into formal INDCs.
Today’s announcement is the European Commissions’ proposal for the formal translation of EU’s INDC to the Paris agreement. It forms part of a wider set of documents that include: the Energy Union package (focus on climate and energy security) and the plan for Paris (focus on the Commissions view of a successful Paris agreement). Whilst this is not the final INDC, it is likely that a similar outline for EU’s INDC will be agreed on 6th March by what is known as the Environment Council (a body made up of climate and environment ministers from the 28 EU member states).
IMPORTANCE FOR AUSTRALIA
In form and ambition, the EU’s INDC will set the standard for other countries to follow. A key advantage for countries communicating their new post-2020 target early is that it helps shape the targets of other countries.
Specifically, in announcing its process for defining Australia’s national target, the government has focused only on the actions being undertaken by our major trading partners. However, decisions in Lima include an expectation to reference national targets to internationally agreed goals to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees C, and detail how the target is “fair and ambitious”. This is an important signal to encourage countries to take a broader view of their national interests, extending beyond that of a narrow set of highly polluting industries.
The EU have now done this. The test for Australia is whether it will do the same.
The EU’s
draft INDC (page 15-16) explicitly addresses how the EU’s target is “fair and ambitious”:
“This commitment [at least 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030] is in-line with EU policies to achieve a transition to a low emissions economy, allowing for a likely chance to meet the below 2C objective. It puts the EU on a cost effective pathway towards long term domestic emission reductions of 80%, consistent with the IPCC’s assessment of the reductions required from developed countries as a group, to reduce emissions by 80-95% compared to 1990 levels by 2050.”
Note: The Climate Institute’s analysis of Australia’s fair and ambitious contribution suggests that Australia has to reduce emissions by 40 per cent on 2000 levels by 2025. The Climate Change Authority’s past analysis suggests 30-40 per cent emissions reductions over the same time frame (40-60 per cent by 2030). Both indicate that Australia’s emissions should be net zero before 2050.
Erwin Jackson is deputy chief executive of The Climate Institute.
