Deutsche says solar PV market could reach 50GW in 2014

The upgrades to the outlook for the solar PV market continue, with analysts at Deutsche Bank now suggesting that some module manufacturers expect the global market to rise as high as 50GW in 2014.

It says solar companies are bullish on the fundamentals of the market and demand from Japan, China and the US. The market could rise to 45-50GW in 2014, which would be nearly 50 per cent more than the anticipated 35GW of intallations in the current yar.

It says most companies now expect at least 45GW next year – compared to recent industry estimates of around 40GW – and some companies such as Yingli – the world’s biggest manufacturer – suggest it could be as high as 50GW.

China appears to be the big source of demand upside – and could install up to 15GW in 2014. This is after major revisions to the current year’s target to as high as 9GW from prior estimates of 5-6GW, mostly the result of a big boost to the distributed market in that country.

This will be supported by strong demand from Japan, the US and other emerging market.

Deutsche Bank said this was good news for solar stocks, given that increased demand will bring improvements in pricing, margins and therefore revenue and profit improvements. “We expect the current solar rally to continue through the year-end. Trina, Yingli are its top picks in the China solar sector.

Adding to the improved outlook for solar companies was a further shake-out in tier 2 and tier 3 Chinese module manufacturers, most of whom were struggling to access finance and could face problems meeting debt payments.

“Most solar companies plan to add module capacity by spending limited amount on capex or in some cases acquire equipment of bankrupt companies at a discount to market price. In any case, capacity growth from tier 1 companies would be likely constrained by availability of poly, wafers and cells.