Coal’s demise drives Australia’s emissions lower, but cuts still way too slow

The decline of coal has helped drive Australia’s emissions lower, latest data from the federal government shows, but a lack of meaningful national climate policies means overall emissions cuts still fell well short of the level of action consistent with keeping global warming to within safer levels.

The latest quarterly update to Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions inventory, published this week, shows emissions increasing across much of the Australian economy as it returned to past practices following the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, a decline in coal use has allowed Australia to record an overall reduction in emissions for the year ending September 2021, as it was pushed out of the local market by lower cost and lower emissions alternatives.

The effects of the decline of coal are evident in at least two segments of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions accounts, falling emissions in the electricity sector as the share of renewables increases, and declining fugitive emissions as the extraction of coal also slows.

Over the last year, emissions from the electricity sector fell 4.7 per cent, which translates to a reduction of 8.1 million tonnes of emissions, while fugitive emissions fell 5.1 per cent over the same period.

This result reflects a decade-long trend, with output from Australia’s coal generators in the National Electricity Market declining by 9.2TWh over the last decade, while gas generation has also fallen by 2.9TWh.

This falling generation from fossil fuel generators has been replaced by the emergence of lower-cost renewable energy sources, with wind generation growing by 4TWh over the last decade, along with increases of 2.3TWh from large-scale solar projects and a massive 4.4TWh from small-scale solar installations.

The Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, which published the data, said that coal production fell by 3.8 per cent over the last year, contributing to the fall in the volume of emissions that escape during the extraction process.

While this is positive in the context of an urgent need for stronger climate action, the electricity sector and fugitive emissions are the only sectors that recorded declines in emissions in the year in Australia.

Elsewhere, emissions increased across the rest of the economy; transport emissions rose 1.4 per cent over the year as Covid related restrictions were lifted, agricultural emissions rose 3.8 per cent as drought conditions eased, and industrial emissions increased by 1.9 per cent.

Emissions from stationary energy use – such as energy consumed in metals smelting – rose 1.7 per cent, emissions from waste increased 1.6 per cent, and emissions from land-use changes also increased by 0.5 per cent.

The figures highlight the contrasting experiences across two parts of the Australian economy as a result of ongoing policy failures at a national level.

The electricity sector has achieved sustained reductions in emissions, as the emergence of lower-cost wind and solar supplies – and strong policy support from state and territory governments – have helped underpin investment in new low emissions technologies.

But while electricity sector emissions have declined, the lack of an economy-wide response to climate change on the part of the federal government has allowed emissions to grow across virtually all other economic sectors.

Emissions continued to grow across the rest of the Australian economy as a lack of coherent national policy, and a lack of a price imposed on greenhouse gas emissions has deprived the market of a signal to invest in low emissions technologies.

Overall, the latest data shows Australia's emissions falling by just 0.8 per cent across the year ending September 2021, amounting to a reduction of just 4 million tonnes for the year.

It is a pace that is too slow to deliver on a target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. With Australia's emissions currently at 501.5 million tonnes a year, the current pace of emissions reductions would see Australia take 125 years - until 2145 - to get to zero emissions.

The release of the latest greenhouse emissions data coincides with a significant number of communities across Australia's east coast are devastated by extreme levels of flooding.

It also coincides with the release of a new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warns the world faces multiple "threats to human wellbeing and health of the planet" as a result of climate change.

The Morrison government has yet to respond formally to the IPCC report.