Coalition’s latest coal jobs scare campaign reveals a big renewables blindspot

The Morrison government’s pre-election scare campaign around climate and renewables is already reaching fever pitch, with claims that a ban on new coal and gas projects in Australia would cost 53,000 jobs $85 billion in investment, “in Queensland alone.”

The claims, published in Murdoch newspapers, are reportedly taken from “shocking new analysis” – or “Morrison government modelling” – based on projects already in the pipeline, which counts 31,000 construction jobs and 22,000 ongoing jobs at risk.

No further details of the analysis are provided – who conducted it; a link to the findings – but the newspaper report cites the federal government as saying that 66 projects in the state face winding up on the “scrap heap” if new coal and gas projects are banned.

Federal resources minister Keith Pitt is also quoted as saying that “the industry raised $35 billion in royalties and taxes last year;” which is the news report’s only other reference to economics aside from the claim that $85 billion in investment is at risk.

Minister Pitt’s office on Wednesday told RenewEconomy that the figures cited in the Courier Mail report came from this Resources and Energy Major Projects report 2021, put together by the department’s chief economist, Russell Campbell.

A look at the report suggests the figures used by News Ltd have come from totting up the economic and jobs value of coal and gas projects announced and/or committed in the state that might not progress under a post-election fossil fuels moratorium.

It’s worth noting, at this point, that very basis of this particular scare campaign, that coal and gas projects will be banned outright if the Morrison government loses the election, originates with a statement earlier this week from the Australian Greens.

What Greens leader Adam Bandt actually said was that the party would seek a “temporary moratorium” on new coal, oil and gas projects as part of any “balance of power” negotiations around climate policy following the election.

“We want a pause on coal and gas while talking,” said Bandt. “It’s a pretty reasonable position. It’s not even about existing coal and gas projects, we’re just saying don’t open up new ones. You’ve got to stop pouring petrol on the fire before you can put it out.”

This has proven to be a gift for the Morrison government, however, allowing it to claim that an election win by Labor would mean a brutal end to Australia’s fossil fuel industry, windfall profits and jobs – a myth the Murdoch press is happy to perpetuate.

“Anthony Albanese and his mate Adam Bandt have to be upfront with Australians about which pensioners, schools, hospitals and other important recipients will lose funding under this proposed deal between Labor and The Greens,” Pitt says in the News Ltd article.

“Along with the loss of thousands of regionals jobs, this will be the real cost of each-way Albo’s arrangement with The Greens for Labor to form government.”

(For the record, both the Morrison government and the Labor opposition party have had pretty hysterical responses to the Greens’ “pretty reasonable position” – Labor’s being that it won’t be negotiating with “fringe groups” if it wins the election.)

Meanwhile, the News Ltd article on Wednesday conveniently ignores a whole section of the same “chief economist” report that details the dollar and jobs value of “new energy” projects in 2021, including solar, wind, renewable hydrogen, ammonia, and battery metals.

The inconvenient truth is that a shift to renewables – and the industries that will underpin clean energy and low-carbon transport and industry – promises to be a major economic and employment boon for Australia’s regions, including its coal towns. And there’s plenty of independent modelling out there to support the theory.

Just this week, Australian think tank the Blueprint Institute released its first major report for 2022 on this very subject – called Breaking New Ground; the first of a series weighing up the challenges and opportunities of the transition away from coal, in this case focusing on south-west Queensland.

Blueprint’s focus on Queensland is well timed and welcome. The Sunshine State was, after all, was largely blamed/ credited with the Labor’s 2019 federal election loss, after a swing of more than 4% against the party by Queensland voters allegedly spooked by a scare campaign around coal jobs.

“Coal-fired generators are facing increased competition, with many set to close – unviable in the face of ever-cheaper renewable energy. And the days of insatiable global demand for our thermal coal exports are also numbered,” the report says.

But Blueprint goes on to stress that such a shift should be met with “optimism and not trepidation” – and certainly not political scare campaigns – because Australia’s coal regions, including in Queensland can prosper in the new energy economy.

“The only question is whether we have the courage and foresight to capitalise on these new opportunities.”

Blueprint’s modelling indicates that approximately 6,200 new jobs in renewable energy projects, alone, will be created in Queensland’s south west over the coming three years, with nearly 1,000 being permanent, long-term positions.

But the report recognises that to secure enduring prosperity, these regions must look beyond renewables to clean industry development, critical minerals mining, auxiliary industries, and other emerging sectors to create meaningful and stable employment and investment.

By 2040, between 5,400 and 9,450 (depending on policy action) new jobs in critical minerals mining are projected in Queensland, according to the report, with the greatest concentration of known sites clustered around Mt Isa.

And Blueprint also cites Accenture’s Future Charge report, which found that Australia’s expansion into onshore materials processing and battery production could potentially generate over $7.4 billion in annual revenue and lead to the creation of over 34,000 jobs by 2030.

The report also calls for $20 million in federal government funding to establish coal adaptation authorities in two separate town centres in south-west Queensland, which is host to the Tarong, Kogan Creek, and Millmerran coal-fired generators.

“Lasting economic prosperity in the new energy economy is attainable in south-west Queensland, but it will require broad stakeholder collaboration, and in some cases, targeted government support,” the report’s authors write.

“Rather than bear the economic cost of our changing electricity grid, regional Australia can lead us into a new era of prosperity.

“Our polling shows that voters in south-west Queensland are demanding their leaders step up to the plate. We hope that this research helps policymakers to move fast and embrace these opportunities with confidence.”

We hope so, too. But for now federal politics seems to be stuck in a depressing rut of attack-and-defend when it comes to renewable energy and climate change, aided by major media outlets that are happy to toe the line.