China smashes rooftop solar installation record, as emissions fall despite demand growth

A new analysis has revealed that China installed an astonishing 36 gigawatts of rooftop solar PV in the first quarter of 2025 – a record – as the country raced to meet new policy deadlines.

An analysis by Rystad Energy says the 36 GW of rooftop PV is the highest for any quarter ever in China, and could be trumped in the second quarter by a further 94 GW of new installations on homes and businesses.

Including large scale solar, China installed 60 GW of new PV capacity in the first quarter of 2025 – a record for the first quarter – but it is the anticipated 130 GW of new distributed PV capacity anticipated for the first half of the year that is the main talking point.

Rystad says the surge in rooftop PV installations is being driven by new policy guidelines that are aimed at encouraging self-consumption of distributed solar projects, in an effort to ease grid congestion issues, improve grid stability, and reduce reliance on centralised power systems.

Rystad Energy says that the surge in rooftop solar capacity comes with restrictions to encourage self consumption. For instance, large-scale C&I projects measuring above 6MW will now be required to fully utilise power generation and will no longer be able to sell power to the grid.

“While these new guidelines are pushing China forward, they’re having a dual impact on the C&I sector that typically has limited or no grid connection,” said Yicong Zhu, vice president of renewables & power research at Rystad Energy.

“On one hand, increased self-consumption in C&I rooftop PV projects is easing grid-connection challenges and helping ease grid congestion across the country. The rules are also helping to accelerate progress in carbon trading and green certificate markets, with storage installations expected to rise.

“However, the added complexity in purchase agreements may introduce new uncertainty and potentially weigh on project economics, which could dissuade developers, investors and financiers.”

Rystad Energy says despite this, it still expects 2025 to set a new record for large scale solar, with 167GW of new utility-scale solar PV projects expected to be installed by year’s end.

Importantly, China’s efforts to continually ramp up the installation of new clean energy technologies like solar is starting to have a measurable impact on its carbon dioxide emissions.

China has a target of peaking its CO2 emissions by 2030 – and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 – but according to a new analysis by Carbon Brief, China’s CO2 emissions fell by 1.6 per cent year-on-year through the first quarter of 2025 and were down by 1 per cent over the last 12 months.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute, said this is the first time that emissions have fallen despite rapid demand growth.

Myllyvirta says electricity supply from new wind, solar and nuclear capacity was enough to cut coal-power output even as demand surged, whereas previous falls were due to weak growth.

“The analysis, based on official figures and commercial data, shows that China’s CO2 emissions have now been stable, or falling, for more than a year,” Myllyvirta, said.

“However, they remain only 1% below the latest peak, implying that any short-term jump could cause China’s CO2 emissions to rise to a new record.”

If you wish to support independent media, and accurate information, please consider making a one off donation or becoming a regular supporter of Renew Economy. Your support is invaluable.