Brown coal hits new low in Victoria as wind and battery records tumble and renewables peak at 95.2 pct

Victoria’s energy system set multiple records on Sunday, including a record low average output for brown coal – once the mainstay of its grid – which fell below 2 GW for the first time.

The multiple new records – which included negative residual demand, maximum wind and solar output, curtailment, and battery storage, reflects the increasing role of renewables, the evolving role of coal, and the importance of system flexibility.

Among the records we saw on Sunday were an historic low for brown coal generation in the state.

The daily average Victorian coal output fell to 1,969 MW, marking the first time it has dropped below 2,000 MW. The previous lowest was 2,069 MW in November, 2022.

Coal output ranged from 2,600 MW down to 1,693 MW, reflecting the coal fleet’s need to respond to variable loading through strategic unit outages and ramping flexibility, while still maintaining its capacity to operate as a baseload supplier when system conditions allow.

Other records included:

– All-time Minimum Residual Demand: It reached a new low of minus 239.2 MW at 13:30 on Sunday, compared to the previous record of minus 94.1 MW in September, 2024. This reflects growing solar generation reducing grid demand during the day.

– Annual Maximum Renewable Share: 95.2% at 13:30 on Sunday, up 0.52% from 94.6% ion September last year.

– All-time Maximum Wind & Solar Output: 4,130 MW at 17:20 on Sunday,up 252 MW from the previous record (3,878 MW on January 27 this year). The previous peak was 3,824 MW.

– All-time Maximum Wind Output: 3,832 MW at 20:15 Sun 09 Feb 2025, up 183 MW (+5.0%) from the previous high (3,650 MW at 18:05 Thu 30 May 2024).

– Curtailment Trends: On average, 640 MW of renewable energy was curtailed, ranging from 0 MW to a peak of 2,292 MW. While curtailment reflects grid constraints and oversupply periods, it also signals opportunities for improved flexibility, storage, and interconnection.

– On Friday, battery charge hit a record peak of 584.9 MW at 2.40pm.

Some Key Takeaways:

– Interconnection remains crucial, balancing periods of surplus and shortfall.

– Coal’s role continues to adapt, demonstrating both baseload capability and flexibility.

– Hydro and gas peaking plants play a key role, responding to evening demand peaks.

– Renewables are increasingly setting market conditions, with growing penetration pushing demand for greater grid flexibility and storage solutions.

These records underscore Victoria’s shifting energy landscape, with renewables increasingly shaping system demand and supply. As residual demand continues to decline, grid flexibility, interconnection, and firming capacity will play a growing role in maintaining reliability.