Barnaby effect? Land talks behind late delay advice for huge New England renewable zone

One of the country’s first and most hotly contested renewable energy zones – in New England in the north of NSW – has been hit by more delays that could have a big impact on the rollout of multiple gigawatts of new wind, solar and storage capacity.

The revelation of the three year delay to the New England REZ – which is designed to support 8 GW of new capacity and more than $10 billion in investment – was revealed in a small note to a table published by the Australian Energy Market Operator in its updated 10-year reliability forecast, the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO).

The advice from EnergyCo, the authority which is responsible for the roll out of the state’s renewable energy zones, only came in on May 14, informing AEMO that the zone would not be ready to release capacity until June, 2031, nearly three years after the previously advised deadline of September, 2028.

The advice from EnergyCo came in too late for AEMO to factor the delay into its updated reliability forecasts, already impacted by the surprisingly lengthy delay on Project Energy Connect, the country’s biggest transmission project to date that will link NSW with South Australia.

“On 14 May 2024, Energy Co advised a revised scope and expected capacity release date of June 2031 (for the New England renewable energy zone),” the note said. “All modelling and commentary included in this update to the ESOO incorporates the previously advised scope and date of September 2028.”

However, EnergyCo later disputed this advice, saying that it released a report in December that suggested the first stage of the New England REZ would be delivered in 2030, and the second in 2032. It now says both stages are delayed by just one year, rather than three.

It is not uncommon for AEMO assessments to be at odds with a developer’s timetable. Akaysaha Energy this week disputed AEMO’s declaration that the 400 MW/1600 MWh Orana battery was delayed to late 2026. It says it will arrive in the first half of 2026, but appears not to be entered into AEMO’s ESOO assessment systems.

It is not clear exactly what impact the reported New England will have on AEMO’s reliability forecasts for NSW, particularly given the anticipated closure of Eraring and the planned exit of all its remaining coal fired generators over the coming decade.

It was not immediately clear what has caused the delays. AEMO said it has no information to add, and EnergyCo did not respond to Renew Economy’s questions until late in the day.

It said the REZ will be delivered in stages, with energisation of the first stage expected in 2031, and the second stage by 2033, which will deliver the 6 gigawatts outlined in the Network Infrastructure Strategy’s ’deliver now’ scenario.

It said an earlier energisation date of the first stage in 2027 had been first referenced in AEMO’s 2022 Integrated System Plan (ISP) but the updated timeline takes into account feedback from consultation with communities on the route corridor.

“EnergyCo has been working with directly affected landowners to better understand local constraints and potential opportunities to refine the study corridor since June 2023,” it said.

” In March 2024 we released a revised study corridor that increases the use of state-owned land to minimise overall impacts on local landowners and the environment. EnergyCo will continue community consultation and technical studies to refine the study corridor, and we will be lodging a detailed Scoping Report in the coming months.”

However, the REZ and projects within it have been subject to a series of fierce attacks from naysayers, led by the local federal Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce, who has compared wind farms to a virus. Many communities have been split between those who support and oppose the developments.

The Nationals now appear to have a policy of stopping new wind and solar projects, and transmission lines, and have threatened to tear up contracts signed with the federal government under its Capacity Investment Scheme. They also want to keep ageing coal fired power stations open for at least another decade in the wait for expensive nuclear.

One of the companies with a growing portfolio of wind and solar projects in the New England region is Origin Energy, the owner of Eraring, which has snapped up projects from Walcha Energy, and bought its own property to host a major wind farm west of Armidale.

It recently appointed Adam Marshal, the retiring state Nationals MP for the Northern Tablelands, which overlaps the federal electorate, in a new government affairs role that it hopes will help smooth local acceptance of new renewable projects.

The New England REZ is not the only transmission project to experience delays, with the country’s biggest transmission project, Project Energy Connect that will provide a direct link from South Australia to NSW for the first time, now expected in mid 2027, because of a 12 month delay on the NSW side of the project.

South Australia energy minister Tom Koutsantonis, who as energy minister in previous Labor governments argued against the new transmission link, voiced his frustration over the delay, which could have an impact on the state’s accelerated goal of reaching a world-first goal of 100 per cent net wind and solar power by 2027.

See: Delays in massive transmission and battery projects give NSW wriggle room to delay Eraring closure

Note: This story has been updated following EnergyCo feedback that insists that the delay in New England is one year, not three years suggested by AEMO.