Australia’s coal mines haven’t cut methane emissions, but hidden them with offsets and accounting tricks

Australia’s coal mine methane are emissions are falling, according to official data, through a combination of offset use, operational disruptions, and accounting shifts rather than any actual significant abatement, a new study has found.

The new analysis from global energy think tank Ember finds that Australia’s coal mine methane (CMM) emissions fell in the last fiscal year to between 22.1 and 22.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), which is approximately 3.5 per cent lower than 2024.

Unfortunately, according to Ember’s analysis, the bad news is that the decline does not appear to reflect any broad structural efforts at decarbonisation across Australia’s coal mining sector.

“The Safeguard Mechanism should be driving genuine methane cuts at coal mines, not allowing compliance to be met through rising offset use and accounting changes,” said Sougol Aghdasi, a CMM analyst at Ember.

“Without stronger incentives for on-site abatement, Australia risks reporting progress while leaving major methane sources largely unaddressed.”

Methane is a particularly potent form of greenhouse gas. Even though it persists for a short period – about 12 years – it more than 80 times more effective at trapping heat than Co2, and is responsible for around 30 per cent of total warming since the Industrial Revolution.

Both Ember and the Australian government’s department of climate change, energy, the environment, and water (DCCEEW) suggest that any evident declines are due primarily to lower production from underground mines.

Ember’s analysis specifically points to underground mine closures and accounting shifts, rather than any actual emissions reductions.

Additionally, Ember found that, even at coal mines where emissions were actually shown to have declined, the decline was largely due to operational disruptions.

For example, the biggest emissions reduction in FY’25 came at the Grosvenor underground mine in Queensland, which reported a decline of 1.07 MtCO2e – after operations were halted for the majority of the year due to a mine explosion.

As a result of these disruptions, methane emissions in underground mines covered by Australia’s Safeguard Mechanism fell by 1.1 MtCO2e in FY’25. Emissions from open-cut and mixed mines, however, increased in FY’25 by 0.1 and 0.4 MtCO2e, respectively, with only a few coal mines reporting a substantial increase.

Several large open-cut mines nevertheless reported significant declines in methane emissions for FY’25, such as the Hail Creek coal mine in Central Queensland, which reported a decline of 38 per cent despite maintaining similar production levels – likely due to a decrease in methane intensity.

Hail Creek also generated Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) worth approximately AUD 9 million.

However, according to Ember, the “decline in Hail Creek’s methane intensity does not align with independent measurements that suggest significant underreporting.”

Ember’s analysis also found that coal mines appear to be increasingly relying on carbon offsets to meet regulatory requirements under the Safeguard Mechanism (SGM).

Offset use rose by 40 per cent in FY’25, significantly outpacing the 13 per cent or so tightening in baselines, indicating that increased reliance on offsets is being driven by lagging on-site abatement and persistently high methane emissions, particularly in underground mines.

According to Ember, coal mines used approximately 6.3 MtCO2e of offsets to meet their SGM baseline in FY2025, a 40% increase from the previous fiscal year. 

“As the Safeguard Mechanism review is approaching, there is a critical opportunity to address persistent gaps in the scheme,” added Dody Setiawan, a senior climate and energy analyst at Ember

“Stronger oversight, improved transparency, and targeted methane action are essential to ensure compliance reflects real emissions reductions.”