Australia’s bid to host climate COP for first time on hold as fossil lobby ups the ante at fractious Baku talks

The prospect of the UN’s annual climate talks being hosted by an Australian Coalition government full of climate deniers, fully committed to extending coal generation and led by a man who once joked about the impact of rising sea levels on Pacific Islands, might have been too much for the rest of the world to contemplate right now.

The current Labor government’s bid to host the COP31 talks in 2026, a commitment from the last election campaign, has been put on hold, despite intense diplomatic efforts, until at least the middle of 2025 and certainly after the result of the federal poll to be held before the end of May is known.

It would be the first time that Australia has hosted the annual climate talks, and it has been a centrepiece of the Labor climate policy. But Labor’s efforts have been left in limbo by the fractious nature of the climate talks in Baku – where the fossil fuel lobby was out in force and agreement on anything was hard to find – and the intransigence of rivals Turkey.

And so a decision on Australia’s bid to host the COP31 talks in 2026 has been put off until the mid-year talks in June, or even until the next COP30 is held in Belem, Brazil. It certainly won’t be decided until after the results of the next election are known. If that wasn’t the intention of going into the Baku climate talks, it was certainly the result.

It will be a disappointment to both federal climate minister Chris Bowen, who flew to Turkey on the way to Baku, and to South Australia premier Peter Malinauskas, who was also in Azerbaijan touting the state’s leadership in integrating wind and solar as a key attraction to illustrate what is possible in a future green energy economy.

Australia has a chequered history in the UN climate talks, having secured the infamous “Australia clause” at the 1997 Kyoto conference – which allows it to controversially count reduced land clearing as credits to its emissions task – and then refusing to sign the treaty until Kevin Rudd did so with great fanfare at Bali in 2007.

Australia’s constructive approach was then dramatically reversed again with the election of Tony Abbott in 2013 ahead of the 2013 Warsaw COP. It remained belligerent or diffident for nearly another decade, to the frustration of the vulnerable Pacific Nations, and the EU, who count on its support.

Bowen has sought to change course again, playing key roles in the last two conferences, particularly at Baku, and he wanted to have a two year window to prepare for a special COP, one that could highlight Australia’s proposed transition from one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel exporters to a green energy superpower.

But Baku was difficult. It was haunted by the re-election of Donald Trump, whose entire administration appears to believe climate science is a hoax, and the likelihood that the US will give up on the Paris climate treaty. Other right wing governments, including the recently elected one in New Zealand, were reportedly unhelpful.

And Saudi Arabia, for all the billions it spends on sports washing – particularly its defacto purchase of the FIFA World Cup and its hosting of other key sports – showed its true colours, opposing just about everything at every turn. The New York Times described the Saudis as a “wrecking ball.” Others said they had “never seen anything quite like it.”

In the end the climate talks were able to salvage something – they always do. There was agreement on carbon trading, even with lots of crucial details to be filled in, and just enough on finance to continue the caravan until Brazil. But the developing world and activists cried “betrayal”, and said the agreement was completely inadequate.

Australia now has its own tough decision to make – whether to announce its 2035 emission reduction targets by the official deadline of February, or punt them, too, till after the next election.

The Labor “machine” will no doubt also be haunted by the spectre of Trump, but there is a federal election to win, and the polls point to a tight race: Analysts and climate experts differ on whether Labor would be best holding fire or committing to a strong target.

Some suggest there is a better chance of it being ambitious before the election than after it – although that might depend on the nature of a new government, and the extent to which a re-elected Labor has to rely on Greens and Teals, however unpleasant that prospect might seem to prime minister Anthony Albanese.

If the Coalition does get back into power, then Australia can forget about any ambition on emissions reductions, its ambitions to be a renewable superpower, and any effort to host COP31.

Just the idea of a COP presided by Ted O’Brien – who is now even giving hints he might dump or neuter the Safeguard Mechanism – and hosted by Dutton, might be too much for anyone with real concerns about the climate and current and future generations. It might, though, rate highly on X, and other far right propaganda platforms.

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