Australian researchers launch “breakthrough” online tool to track climate damage of new fossil fuel projects

Joining the dots between the impacts on the world of a new fossil fuel project’s carbon-dioxide emissions has just got a bit easier with the release of what Australian researchers have dubbed a “breakthrough” open-access online tool.

The Carbon Impacts Tracer tool, building on a study published last year by six universities in Australia and the UK, allows the public to explore the link between new sources of CO2 to extra warming and the resulting estimated impacts on eight social and environmental categories.

These impacts range from future coral reef and glacier loss, to crop impacts and the pushing of more people beyond a “human climate niche”.

“We’ve now hit the point where 1.5 degrees Celsius is locked in, and at this rate, we’re heading for 1.8 degrees Celsius [and] likely even higher,” said Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, professor of Climate Science in the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University, and co-author of the 2025 study.

“This is coming at a time where, in Australia and even in other countries as well, new fossil fuel projects are getting approved daily,” Perkins-Kirkpatrick told a media conference. “For so long, these fossil fuel projects have claimed that the emissions from their individual projects do not matter in the grand scheme of things.”

Until now, at least, if the tool is in any guide. It includes analysis of what might be called the “pit to peril” impacts of five major projects, from the Carmichael coal mine to the North-West Shelf gas extension, and one project in boththe UK and the US. It also allows customisation for new projects.

Take as an instance, NSW’s Independent Planning Commission’s expected approval for the extension project of the Hunter Valley Operations (HVO) by tomorrow, with conditions.

The tracer tool does not account for non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases, so the impacts of the proposed mine’s 809 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent emissions – about seven times NSW’s total annual emissions – are not an exact measure.

Still, taking that tally as if it were carbon dioxide only, the mine would contribute 0.00036°C of warming (the mid-point of a 0.00022–0.00050°C range). Some 325,000 more people would be pushed out of the “human climate niche”, of liveable conditions, and about 14.7 million additional coral colonies lost per bleaching event, as among the eight estimated climate impacts.

The NSW government itself assessed the share of global emissions resulting from the proposed HVO extension.

“Assuming global emissions are in the lowest range where all countries meet all the commitments in their [Nationally Determined Contributions], the emissions from the project would represent a 0.08% contribution to global emissions in 2030 and a 0.09% contribution in 2035,” a submission by the NSW’s planning department said in a submission.

“Every single potential project matters, and now we can begin to quantify what those impacts could mean before a project is built,” said Claudia Stepin, an ANU research officer, who built the online tool. “This opens up the possibilities for accountability, advocacy and decision-making.”

NSW’s Net Zero Commission, which also made an HVO submission, said the state’s policy settings “should be informed by Australia’s international obligations and their potential implications”.

“Legal commentary suggests that measures facilitating fossil fuel expansion may now face greater scrutiny, including at the subnational level,” the commission stated, citing an advisory opinion in July 2025 by the International Court of Justice outlining states’ climate change obligations.

“Failure of a State to take appropriate action to protect the climate system from GHG emissions – including through fossil fuel production, fossil fuel consumption, the granting of fossil fuel exploration licences or the provision of fossil fuel subsidies – may constitute an internationally wrongful act which is attributable to that State,” the ICJ opinion stated.

Wesley Morgan, a research associate at the Australian Climate Accountability Project of the University of NSW’s Australian Human Rights Institute, said governments had “clear legal obligations to measure the impact of fossil fuel projects and to regulate fossil fuel companies to prevent climate harms”.

Morgan said the online tracer was “a breakthrough tool”.

“We have long known that burning coal, oil, and gas is the chief contributor to the climate crisis … and that we need to transition away from fossil fuels to limit dangerous climate change,” he told the media conference.

“Until now, fossil-fuel proponents have been able to use a ‘drop in the ocean’ argument, claiming that their proposed coal, oil, or gas project does not have a measurable impact on climate change,” he said.

The tracer tool now meant that “no individual fossil fuel project’s emissions can be described as negligible”.

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