Australia urged to release “terrifying” climate security analysis after UK report flags ecosystem collapse by 2030

The Australian government has been urged to come clean on security threats posed by climate change following the release of a troubling UK assessment.

A group of former national security leaders warn the Australian public is being left in the dark on potential “geopolitical chaos” detailed in a climate intelligence assessment produced by a key security ally. 

Warnings of crop failures, water insecurity and disease outbreaks are contained in a redacted version of the United Kingdom report investigating the national security threats posed by global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.

An uncensored version seen by UK news outlet The Times flags a “reasonable worst-case scenario” of ecosystem collapse causing Himalayan water supplies to dwindle and escalating tensions between nuclear-armed China, India and Pakistan.

The Australian Security Leaders Climate Group, led by former ADF chief Chris Barrie, is calling on the federal government to expose its own intelligence on global climate security risks and implications for the nation.

“The UK intelligence assessment is saying what the Australian government refuses to admit,” Admiral Barrie said.

“The first question the government should be asked is whether it concurs with the analysis by the intelligence agencies of one of our AUKUS partners.

“Yes or no?”

Australia’s Office of National Intelligence produced an external assessment of the security risks caused by climate change three years ago but unlike in the UK, no declassified version of the report was made public. 

“Keeping this information in the bottom drawer does not reduce the risk – it only delays preparation,” Admiral Barrie said.

“The UK is sounding the alarm on potential geopolitical chaos – why hasn’t Australia been open with its citizens about similar risks?”

Independent senator David Pocock has been briefed on the contents of the ONI report, describing them as “terrifying”.

He said Australia’s refusal to follow the UK’s lead was indefensible. 

“Australians deserve to know how serious the climate risks are and whether their government is prepared, not kept in the dark while our allies sound the alarm,” Senator Pocock said.

The report produced by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, with assistance from intelligence agencies MI5 and MI6, found all critical ecosystems were on a pathway to collapse.

There was a “realistic possibility” of collapse of the boreal forests in Russia and Canada, the southeast Asian coral reefs and the Himalayan ecosystem by 2030, caused by climate change and other drivers.

The Amazon and Congo rainforests and southeast Asian mangroves could reach irreversible decline by 2050.

Without supporting ecosystems, more people would be pushed into poverty and food insecurity, potentially fuelling higher migration rates, political polarisation and economic insecurity.  

Greater competition between countries can be expected that could fester into conflicts.

The defence minister has been contacted for comment. 

AAP