Australia urged to go harder on emissions after wind, solar and EVs put 2030 target back on track

Australia has been urged to commit to a highly ambitious emission reductions target for 2035 after new data released by the federal government showed that the growth of renewables in the main grid and the uptake of electric vehicles has put its 2030 target back on track.

Australia has a target of a 43 per cent cut in emissions below 2005 levels by 2030, after Labor won power and ramped up the previous Coalition government’s weak target of 37 per cent.

It is being urged to set a minimum target of a 75 per cent cut in emissions for 2035 as part of its commitment to the Paris climate treaty, which is supposed to be filed by February but may be put off till after the next election.

Even states like the coal dependent Queensland has a target of a 75 per cent cut in emissions by 2035, and Victoria is aiming for a cut of 75 per cent to 80 per cent

Most climate activists say the 75 per cent cut should actually be the target for the country as a whole in 2030 rather than 2035, and that Australia should aim for net zero by 2035 to keep in line with the country’s share of a global effort to limit average warming to close to 1.5°C.

But federal climate and energy minister Chris Bowen says meeting – and hopefully beating – the 43 per cent target is already a significant achievement given that Labor only came to power in 2022 after more than a decade of little progress and even less ambition under the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments.

“It is a big task, 43 per cent emissions reductions when you’re starting in 2022 to reach your target by 2030. It’s not long to turn the ship around,” Bowen said in an interview on ABV TV on Wednesday morning.

“(The) department’s forecast indicate is 42.6 per cent, compared to 37 percent at the same time last year, so it shows that the policies we’ve put in place, while they take a while to have their impact, will be having the impact we intended to by 2030.”

Those policies include its target of 82 per cent renewables by 2030, which will do the heavy lifting on emissions. After a slow start, the rollout of the Capacity Investment Scheme is expected to accelerate the installation of wind, solar and storage projects over the next five years.

The government’s vehicle emissions policy is also expected to have an impact, despite the recent fall in electric vehicle sales, driven mostly by a plunge in the popularity of Tesla EVs – possibly a result of Elon Musk’s management of X, his attacks on left wing governments and his support for president elect Donald Trump.

The limited data released by Bowen – a full report is due later this week – indicates that Australia is on track to reach 42.6 per cent reductions in emissions by 2030, slightly more with flagged policies such as Future Made in Australia, and on a carbon budget basis is doing three per cent better than its target.

The Labor government has refused to reveal exactly when it will release its 2035 target, and there is conjecture about whether it will do so before or after the federal poll do in May, where it will be battling the Coalition on the right, and Greens and Teals on its left.

Bowen says the government will await the recommendations of the Climate Change Authority now led by former NSW Liberal energy minister and Treasurer Matt Kean, but acknowledged other factors, including the election of Trump, will be a factor.

“We need to take into account all the factors,” Bowen said. “That advice needs to go to our domestic opportunities, and also, obviously, the international situation, and the pace in which the rest of the world is decarbonising does have an impact on how quickly we can decarbonise when you consider how integral we are to the world’s energy needs.

“You know, elections change, and governments and administrations change around the world, but the fundamentals don’t change, that we need to deal with climate change, that renewable energy is the cheapest form of energy, and every challenge is an opportunity.

“If there’s less renewable investment overseas, there might be more renewable investment in Australia.”

Bowen pointed to the contrast with the Coalition, which has vowed to tear up the 2030 target, and has some members threatening to dump the 2050 net zero target, and even tearing up contracts for renewables written by the Commonwealth. And a strong target may be key to its hopes of hosting the UN COP31 climate conference in 2026.

The Australian Conservation Foundation, which advocates a net zero target for 2035, says the latest data highlights the success of the renewable agenda, but its target remains too weak and is compromised by the government’s approval of new coal mines.

“The government’s 43% target is consistent with more than 2°C of global warming, meaning longer heatwaves, more intense bushfires and worse flooding for Australians,” says the ACF’s National Climate Policy Adviser Annika Reynolds. 

“While its renewable energy policies are cutting emissions, the government has facilitated further warming by approving 27 new or extended coal and gas projects since assuming office.

“Just three coal mine approvals alone, signed off by the Albanese government this year, will generate more than a billion tonnes of climate-heating emissions over the life of the projects.

“It is disappointing the important climate policies championed by Climate Minister Chris Bowen have not been matched by government action to pivot Australia’s exports from climate wrecking coal and gas to net zero industries.” 

Reynolds said the federal opposition’s nuclear energy policy threatens to derail climate action by slowing down the clean energy transition and cementing coal and gas in the country’s electricity grid for longer.

Greg Bourne, from the Climate Council, said Australia needs to accelerate its roll out of renewables.

“All of our ageing and unreliable coal-fired power stations will shut down before 2040; it’s inevitable and already in motion,” Bourne said in a statement. “We need to be firming up plans to power Australia with more clean energy to power our lives around the clock, keep our communities safer, and put power back into the hands of Aussies.”