Australia connects 3GW of new capacity in 2022, must double that to reach renewable target

The Australian Energy Market Operator has published its latest connections data, showing 2.9 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity was connected in 2022, a slight rise over 2021 but with fewer and generally bigger projects.

The 2.9GW total represents newly connected projects, most of which are probably not running at full capacity yet as they are yet to complete the sometimes lengthy commissioning process.

Australia will need to double least this rate of new wind and solar connections over the next eight years if it is to have any chance of meeting the “step change” scenario outlined in AEMO’s Integrated System Plan.

That planning blueprint for the future models a share of 81 per cent renewables by 2030, which has now been adopted as a defacto target by the federal Labor government, and it requires 48GW of new capacity to be installed by then, or around 6GW a year. That doesn’t include rooftop solar.

An even more rapid uptake will be needed to be consistent with 1.5° climate scenario, but there are big questions around the ability to achieve that given even the current targets the complexity of the work, the supply and labour constrains, uncertainty over market rules and the need for new grid infrastructure.

“Last year, AEMO connected 23 projects totaling 2.9 gigawatts (up 137 megawatts from the 30 connected in 2021) including Australia’s largest solar farm, wind farm, and hybrid facility, with projects becoming larger and more complex than ever before,” the organisation noted in a tweet on Monday.

It’s interesting to note that in some states that number of new connections has slowed to a crawl, if not a complete stop, and there was only one new big battery connected anywhere in the country’s main grid, the 10MW (and 20MWh) Queanbeyan battery built as part of the ACT’s 100 per cent renewables plan.

In Tasmania, there were no new connections in 2022, and in South Australia there was really only one major project, the Port Augusta Renewable Energy Hub, which comprised the entirety of the 201MW of wind and 99MW of solar connected to the grid.  (There was also a relocated gas plant).

Victoria connected the most new capacity – 991MW – made up entirely of wind farms and no new solar farms. Queensland followed with 866MW, made up mostly of solar farms – including the country’s biggest at Western Downs (400MW) and just one wind project.

NSW had 619MW of new connections, with zero new wind farms and 605MW of solar, plus the 10MW of battery capacity in Queanbeyan and 4MW of biomass.