Australia accused of helping to blow global carbon budget with fossil fuel plans

A new UN-backed analysis has found governments, including Australia, are collectively planning for increases in global fossil fuel production, putting the world on track to massively exceed global carbon budgets in defiance of international climate change agreements.

The 2021 Production Gap Report has been published by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in collaboration with several leading international research institutions, and less than two weeks ahead of COP26 climate talks in Glasgow.

The analysis finds the world iss on track to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels that can be used while keeping global warming within safe limits, with governments collectively projecting increases in global oil and gas production and only a small reduction in coal production.

The report criticised countries, including Australia, that had not matched commitments to reduce fossil fuel production with commitments to zero emissions targets and the goals of the Paris Agreement, with fossil fuel production on track to increase each year until at least 2040.

“As countries set net-zero emission targets, and increase their climate ambitions under the Paris Agreement, they have not explicitly recognised or planned for the rapid reduction in fossil fuel production that these targets will require,” the report says.

“Rather, the world’s governments plan to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The production gap has remained largely unchanged since our first analysis in 2019.”

The report finds that global fossil fuel production must start to be wound down “immediately” to limit warming to within 1.5 degrees – but governments were instead implementing policies that would lead to further increases in production.

Of particular concern was global coal production, with government production plans set to see 240 per cent more coal extracted out to 2030 compared to a level that would allow global warming to remain below 1.5 degrees.

Additionally, the expected global surplus of gas production to 2030 was around 71 per cent, and oil production was set to be 57 per cent higher than safe limits.

The warning, delivered by the UNEP, means countries like Australia – one of the world’s largest coal and gas producers – cannot expect future demand for fossil fuel resources like coal and gas to continue at anywhere near current levels into the future.

“The research is clear: global coal, oil, and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C,” a lead author of the report, and scientist with the Stockholm Environment Institute, Ploy Achakulwisut, said.

“However, governments continue to plan for and support levels of fossil fuel production that are vastly in excess of what we can safely burn.”

Rather than planning for a transition away from fossil fuels, the report found that the Australian government “promotes its fossil fuel industry, emphasising the economic importance of its coal and gas sectors.”

The report noted that the Australian government had used the Covid-19 pandemic as an excuse to support the expanded extraction of fossil fuels.

This included its so-called gas-fired recovery “by providing substantial new public funding to unlock new gas basins, supporting the expansion of the gas transport network, and using various measures to boost gas supply and domestic gas use.”

The Australia Institute’s climate and energy program director, Richie Merzian, said the report was a ‘wake up call’ for a Morrison government currently debating what policies Australia should take to the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow.

“The UN Production Gap report is a wake-up call that long term climate targets will be undermined if short-term fossil fuel production continues to grow,” Merzian said.

“This is clearly the case in Australia where the Morrison Government is debating net zero by 2050 without any intention to curb short term emissions or fossil fuel production.”

“Unlike most other major fossil fuel exporters, Australia is unashamedly expanding its coal, gas and oil production and cementing its place as the third-largest fossil fuel supplier in the world.”

The Liberal Party has reportedly claimed that gas use will grow, even with its net zero plan for 2050, while the Nationals are even pushing for a new coal fired power station, despite many reports that point out it makes no sense environmentally, economically, or even as an engineering solution for the grid.