Australia 2015 solar PV forecast reduced after another slow quarter

Renewable energy analysts Green Energy Markets have cut their forecast for installed solar PV for the year from a total of 830MW to 780MW, after one of the slowest quarters the sector has seen in the history of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES).

In its Solar Report for June 2015, Green Energy Markets said solar PV certificate creation had continued to fall during the June quarter to 3.4 million STCs (small-scale technology certificates), taking it 16 per cent below the 12-month average.

All up, the report said, STC creation had fallen 4 per cent in the June quarter, with PV creation decreasing 6 per cent and solar hot water (SWH) creation increasing 18 per cent.

The report said the number of PV systems creating STCs decreased 8 per cent during the June quarter to 35,300 systems.

“The past two quarters have had the lowest number of PV systems creating certificates since the start of the SRES,” it said.

A drop in rooftop solar installations was also recorded in each state over the quarter, with the biggest declines in Tasmania (24%) and Victoria (15%); although Victoria had the third highest number of systems creating certificates over the past 12 months, behind NSW and then Queensland, in top position.

The report also slightly lowers the 2015 forecast for solar hot water installations – from 61,900 to 61,057 SWH systems installed for the year – despite a 17 per cent increase in installations during the June quarter to 15,500 systems; a spike that was mostly attributed to seasonal fluctuations.

Commercial-sized PV systems, meanwhile, (those with an installed capacity of more than 10kW) accounted for 22 per cent of total installed capacity for the three months to June 2015, the report said.