Drastic climate action the best course for economic growth

For decades, many economists’ analyses seemed to justify inaction on weaning the economy from fossil fuels, saying the astronomical cost of such rapid transformation would strangle economic growth.  These experts were heeded over scientists who warned that acting too slowly would court climate catastrophe.

A new working paper by two climate scientists and one climate economist, using the most up-to-date data available, concludes the best path for the global economy would involve a rapid and dramatic cut in climate pollution to meet the ambitious Paris target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.   A target that is quickly slipping out of reach.

“Based on everything we think we know about technology, climate damages, etc. it would indeed be ‘optimal’ to cut emissions massively now."

- co-author Gernot Wagner

Three key factors  The paper's core conclusions are largely determined by three factors: the benefits of “learning by doing,” the steep economic costs of catastrophic climate change, and a more realistic “discount rate.” Accounting for these factors reveals that any possible savings from current inaction would not generate enough funds over time to fix potential damage from climate catastrophe.

Incorporating these factors into their model simulations, the paper authors find that the optimal pathway for the global economy would involve tremendously aggressive climate policies that immediately cut climate-warming pollution by about 90% and limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100.