It seems a quaint inheritance from legacy media: Wait until nearly the last moment of an election campaign to announce gravely the publication’s preferred choice of government, along with some harrumph about how – on the balance of probabilities – the other party is simply not fit for office.
It seems almost superfluous now, because these not so many people are waiting to be guided by the newspapers, or anyone else, for that matter.
More than a quarter of voters have already cast their ballot, and it seems pretty certain that two-thirds of all votes cast by the close of the polls on Saturday will not be for Labor, and two thirds of them won’t be for the Coalition either.
We think that’s a good thing. Australia has too often been let down by big party machinery. And never more so than in energy and climate, the two issues that concern us.
And the rise of the “teal” independents – thoughtful, intelligent and attentive to policy – will improve government. And the Greens, still feisty, still independent, and still pushing for the science to be respected and observed, will play a critical role.
It is clear to Renew Economy that on the issues of climate and energy, and many other issues such as environment, the federal Coalition is not fit to govern, because they have no respect for the science, economics or engineering, or the impact on future generations. The current team shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near ministerial offices.
In the last week of the campaign, its dogmatic energy and climate spokesman Ted O’Brien was still uttering complete nonsense, and on Monday morning was largely and disgracefully unchallenged on ABC’s Radio National about his energy and climate policy.
We really shouldn’t be bothered going into the details. But just to make a couple of points absolutely clear; Stopping the rollout of renewables and burning more coal and gas is going to cause more emissions, not less. And promising to replace coal with gas is about as daft an idea as you can have – on the par with O’Brien’s other big nonsense – believing that nuclear solves climate and energy price issues.
On that basis alone, Labor is clearly the only choice as a governing party. But not just by default. Energy and climate minister Chris Bowen has done a pretty good job in his portfolio – not perfect, but pretty good. Bowen deserves the opportunity to take the green energy transition to the next stage.
He has set the ball rolling, but immense challenges remain. The transition had been been held up for a decade by political bloody-mindedness, and frustrated by policy and regulatory and connection and planning barriers. Now it is being hamstrung by the delays and soaring costs of transmission.
The plan will need to adapt. Changes must be made. Part of this will come from the excellent team led by Tim Nelson that is looking at the antiquated market rules that have gotten in the way of the transition and protected the interests of legacy industry uninterested in the climate issue.
Part of this will have to come from the Australian Energy Market Operator, and the latest iteration of its Integrated System Plan to take into account the most recent developments in technologies and costs, the opportunities in consumer and distributed resources, and on demand-side solutions.
But there are caveats. Bowen might be good, and totally across his brief, but the Labor party machine looms large behind him. As environment minister Tanya Plibersek has discovered – on matters such as the EPA and salmon farming – the Labor machine does not countenance policy purity, particularly where there are powerful vested interests, and just a few big egos, to be accommodated.
Many believe that the best way for the power of that Labor machine to be defused – and its best talent allowed to shine – is through minority government.
The Gillard government, with the encouragement of the country independents and the Greens, produced some of the best climate and energy policies that Australia has seen, and some of it still lives on, in the form of the CEFC, ARENA, the re-invigorated Climate Authority and the remnants of the renewable target.
And there was the Labor-Greens government in the ACT, which delivered the territory’s 100 per cent net renewables target on time in 2020, almost single handedly kept the Australian wind and solar industry alive during the federal Coalition government, and is now leading the charge towards gas free homes and net zero emissions.
Of course, you do have to be careful what you wish for. And there are so many different potential outcomes in this poll, given the rise of a new breed of independents who are threatening the Coalition and Labor seats alike, and the ongoing popularity of the Greens and the complexity of preference deals.
It will make for a fascinating evening on Saturday – and possibly into the next two weeks as electorates have to wait for preferences to be sorted and counted.
Prime minister Anthony Albanese is no fan of the Greens, and he reportedly doesn’t like the Teals much either. Albanese is the ultimate Labor machine man, as Hugh Rimington wrote in the Guardian recently.
Is he capable of such negotiation? A Labor government, with its policies refined, sharpened and smoothed by the Teals and the Greens, seems an attractive option. But given the opportunity, Albanese could be just as happy negotiating bills with the likes of Bob Katter and other former Coalition MPs such as Andrew Gee.
The fact that Labor will be able to do that at all owes much to recent events in north America.
Four months ago, one prominent pollster was telling Renew Economy that Dutton had a clear and plausible path to government. It needed a lot to fall his way, but it was a depressing thought, and the energy industry was worried.
It now seems clear that the avenue to government for the Coalition is no longer open, done in by a poorly run campaign that was dominated by events elsewhere.
The appalling nature of the Trump regime – the greed, stupidity and venality, the threat of authoritarian government, the assault on cherished institutions, the relentless attacks on science, the judiciary, and – yes – the media, has been too much for some.
Elon Musk’s cackling and boasting of his ability to punish the vulnerable and his stiff armed salutes derailed the far right push in Germany, and has left a bad taste even among Tesla fans around the world.
Trump’s impact has been so profound in Canada that the Liberals recovered from a remarkable 25-point deficit to beat the once front running Conservatives.
Even though Trump and Musk resisted the temptation to directly meddle in Australian politics, their antics at home and abroad appear to have been too much for some in Australia, and Dutton’s “Trump-lite” attacks on science, the media, renewables, EVs, and key institutions have fallen flat.
Dutton has led an appallingly inept campaign, devoid of original ideas. The revelation of Coalition costings, just two days before the election, confirmed they were simply seeking to ape Trump and Musk and eviscerate, climate, environmental and clean energy policies.
Australia needs at least another three years to sort out, lock in, and accelerate its transition to green energy and to put some steel into its climate policies, which are still well short of what is needed to address the science. And the country needs to kick the nuclear nonsense into the back seat.
Minority government should not be feared. It is actually remarkably common in Australia, and over the last 20 years there have been 15 of them at state, territory and federal level. NSW is currently a minority government, and doesn’t seem to suffer from stability issues.
And besides, there are some outstanding independent and minor party candidates who would be wonderful additions to parliament. Kate Hook in Calare springs to mind, as does the Greens Mandy Nolan in my seat of Richmond.
If Labor wins, the country will most likely host next year’s UN climate conference in Adelaide. That would be a good thing, even if it will bring focus to the fact that Australia remains one of the world’s top three fossil fuel exporters and climate polluters.
Labor operatives, particularly those with ties to the fossil fuel industry, know this and are said to be secretly wishing Turkey gets the gig. Let’s hope not.
It underlines the fact that in sporting parlance, Labor has often flattered to deceive. A minority Labor government, guided by clear, informed consideration of policy, respecting the science, and seizing the economic opportunities of the green energy transition – rather than backroom politics – is really the only hope for the country, and the generations to come.
