Climate denial becomes wedge issue as hockey stick beats Tea Party

Climate Progress

The pro-science side has won the latest skirmish in the climate wars. In a tight race where climate denial became a focus, pro-science candidate Terry McAuliffe was elected governor of Virginia over anti-science candidate Ken Cuccinelli, who infamously launched a (losing) witch hunt against leading climatologist Michael Mann.

And in a timely coincidence, that most vindicated of climate scientists has just published the paperback version of his excellent new book, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars. Anyone who wants to be informed about real climate science and the state of the climate fight should get a copy here.

Chris Mooney noted in his 2012 article on my blogging, “For years, he’s been arguing that talking about the science of warming is a winning political strategy. Now, new polling data are backing him up.”

More and more public opinion analysis is making clear that a candidate advocating climate action drives a wedge between the anti-science Tea Party extremists and the rest of the Republican party (and independent/moderate voters).

In fact, a Pew poll out just this month finds that the Tea Party is the only major political group in this country mired in denial. While 67% of all Americans say “there is solid evidence that the earth has been getting warmer over the last few decades,” and 61% of non-Tea Party Republicans say that, only 25% of Tea Party Republicans agree with that basic statement of fact.

Pew

Last year Climate Progress reported that “Senate Candidates Slam GOP Opponents Over Climate Denial.”

The Virginia governor’s race took the climate issue to the next level. Indeed, while the race turned out closer than some expected, the fact is that McAuliffe was the underdog, becoming the first Virginia governor since 1977 to be elected from the same political party as the president. As Salon’s Joan Walsh put it, “Democrats win a race they lost by 17 points in 2009.”

And climate change denial became a central issue, with fossil fuel companies backing Cuccinelli while climate activists spent millions for McAullife and even ran TV ads:

 

“It’s been called Cuccinelli’s witch hunt,” says the ad. “Designed to intimidate and suppress…Ken Cuccinelli used taxpayer funds to investigate a UVa professor whose research on climate change Cuccinelli opposed. Cuccinelli, a climate change denier, forced the university to spend over half a million dollars defending itself against its own attorney general. Ken Cuccinelli. He’s focused on his own agenda. Not us.”

At the same time, McAuliffe publicly endorsed EPA regulations to limit carbon pollution from new power plants and withstood attacks from the GOP and fossil fuel interests that he was anti-coal. Yet he still prevailed in what Cuccinelli labeled “coal state.”

Mann, who is now 2-for-2 in his battles with Cuccinelli, said of his anti-science nemesis, “I am pleased that Virginia voters rejected his dangerous brand of politics & his contempt for science & rational thought.”

Lincoln was right, “you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.”

The Union of Concerned Scientists has a good piece on this, “Can Attacking Scientists Be a Political Liability?” as does the UK Guardian, “Virginia governor’s race shows global warming science denial is a losing political stance.”

This article was originally published on Climate Progress. Reproduced with permission

Comments

30 responses to “Climate denial becomes wedge issue as hockey stick beats Tea Party”

  1. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    The interesting question for Australia is when (not if) Tony Abbott’s “Tea Party” climate denial will become controversial within the coalition. Abbott won leadership on this issue by just one vote, so where are the coalition members who accept the science and urgency of this is issue?

    Given the recent climate emergencies (eg Blue Mountains fires), the public is starting to connect the dots. Time is not Tony Abbott’s friend.

    I doubt that decent parliamentarians in the Coalition will be able to stomach the aggressive denial and deliberate obfuscation of Tony Abbott’s “Electricity Bill” fear mongering to avoid addressing climate issues for much longer.

    1. suthnsun Avatar
      suthnsun

      David Murray, Hugh Morgan and a legion of older, privileged, ‘no (s)kin in the game’ ‘professionals’ are backing the party troops, mere elected representatives of the people are not permitted to have a differing view I gather. I have serious doubts even about Malcolm Turnbull at this stage.

      1. Keith Avatar
        Keith

        Suthnsun,
        There is no doubt that “toecutters” like Nick Minchin still have influence, and so it will require courage to break ranks from the awful dishonesty and scaremongering.

        However, there are good people in the coalition and at some stage they will not be able to continue to behave so shamefully and in antagonism to the interests of their electors.

        Today’s news is that the Govt doesn’t plan to send a senior minister to the upcoming Climate summit in Warsaw. Such breathtaking dismissal of international discussions is outrageous and deserves the strongest condemnation.

        There is little doubt that the “Tea Party” elements of the coalition are very confident that they can walk all over decent policy. The harder they go, the sooner the pushback I suggest.

        1. suthnsun Avatar
          suthnsun

          Keith, I am somewhat heartened by your affirmation that ‘there are good people in the coalition’. I guess with today’s news we should see them come into focus fairly soon?

    2. Sean Avatar
      Sean

      when someone with enough money runs a conservative environmental ticket – perhaps at the WA senate by-election

      The libs are already starting to get on the nose, with their refusal to answer the media, and sneeky allowance rorting. Someone could run some really colourful ads about fat greedy coal miners eating everyone elses cake. That would be entertaining.
      If the average punter managed to realise that the reason his power bill sucks is due to state government mismanagement – not the carbon tax, we might see some traction on the issue.

      I feel like we are about 2 years behind the US on climate politics

    3. Concerned Avatar
      Concerned

      “Given the recent climate emergencies (eg Blue Mountains fires), the public is starting to connect the dots”
      Got me,what dots?Fires,a climate emergency?

      1. Keith Avatar
        Keith

        Concerned,
        I guess you are self-nominating as one of the Tea Party types.

        Time is running out when you can claim to accept the climate science and at the same time deny any actual consequence of global warming.

        There are 3 issues that contribute to the sort of bushfires recently experienced in the blue mountains:
        i) period of significant warmth and lack of rain
        ii) very hot dry conditions, with very strong winds
        iii) relative humidity falling to less than 10%

        All of these have a global warming component, and they are now happening on a yearly, not a once-in-a-generation timeline.

        The recent fires in the blue mountains were on the back of the hottest winter on record, plus record spring temperatures (9 days over 30, that’s more than last summer which was the hottest on record), and finally disastrously hot winds and extremely low humidity.
        Of course the actual start of the fires was a combination of sparking electricity wires and unfortunate defense activities.

        However, if you miss the connection with climate change, you are welcome, just realise that this puts you in the tea party camp. I suggest you are starting to run out of friends.

        1. Concerned Avatar
          Concerned

          Got me,where are your facts?
          You have an opinion, nothing more.Does not cut it my friend.
          And why the insults.Are you intellectual capabilities lacking?

          1. Keith Avatar
            Keith

            Concerned,

            Again you use Tea Party tactics attacking me and ignoring the reality staring you in the face. I have the feeling that people here are understanding how serious this is, just as people in the US understood that Hurricane Sandy wasn’t normal, nor the drought that has covered large parts of the US. In Australia I suggest that people along the east coast of Nthn NSW and Queensland are worried about whether yet again there will be serious floods this summer.

            You are living in a fact free fantasy.

            My last post was quite factual in giving the key components for serious bushfires : long hot & dry without rain in the leadup, very hot days with high wind, very low humidity. These issues used to come together once in a lifetime. In recent times we’ve had these conditions in Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania and NSW. The climate science makes clear that we should expect more of this as we’re only just starting to see the effects of global warming. That last sentence is backed up by the work of thousands of scientists all around the world.

          2. Concerned Avatar
            Concerned

            Cobber, opinion does not cut it. Empirical facts do. Suggest you look up same.
            In fact even the IPPC makes nonsense of your argument.
            I suppose Foods in Qld have increased,Cyclones have Increased and rainfall decreased as well?
            You really need to do something about your intellectual capabilities.

          3. Keith Avatar
            Keith

            Concerned,
            …….more Tea party…..

            The facts are out there if you are prepared to get informed (obviously not).

          4. Concerned Avatar
            Concerned

            I rest my case .

          5. Keith Avatar
            Keith

            Most powerful storm ever to hit land just happened in the Philippines, wind gusts almost 400 km/hr … another inconvenient fact to be denied.

          6. Concerned Avatar
            Concerned

            Sir you are an intellectual giant.

          7. Concerned Avatar
            Concerned

            Now the facts are in do you feel embarrassed?

          8. Keith Avatar
            Keith

            Concerned,

            What sort of person are you? The facts are that wind gusts of 380 km/hr have been recorded (as I stated), with sustained wind speeds of 315 km/hr. The intense danger lasted more than 6 hr. The catastrophe is still unfolding, with 10,000 reported dead and this is for only part of the areas affected as there are many places not yet in contact. The coastal areas were completely destroyed, like through a tsunami due to the massive storm surges, with 5-8 metre walls of water.

            This remains one of the most powerful storms ever to hit land and even the aftermath in Vietnam had 150 km/hr winds.

            The key issues driving such storms is the level of energy and also the amount of water. Heat = energy and warmer air means much more water to be deposited in sustained rainfall.

            We should all be embarrassed that we are part of causing these climate emergencies…. and this is only the beginning.

          9. Concerned Avatar
            Concerned

            Nobody is happy with loss of life,but never let facts get in your way.

          10. Keith Avatar
            Keith

            Which facts are you having a problem with?

          11. Concerned Avatar
            Concerned

            Get your facts right.Winds 235kph,not 235mph,slight difference.

            And more info for your perusal.

            https://www.dropbox.com/s/vmhj4nyfm4s9sia/Cyclone%20Phillipines.docx

          12. Keith Avatar
            Keith

            The reporting is chaotic as expected so soon after the disaster. I note your report of speeds at landfall of 235 Km/hr and gusts to 275 km/hr.

            This is substantially lower than reports from several sources all of which indicate sustained speeds of 315 km/hr.

            My source for gusts to 380 km/hr was reported in the Guardian as from the US Navy Warning Center … surely a credible source?

            “When typhoon Haiyan- known in the Philippines as Yolanda – pounded into the islands of Samar and Leyte at 4.40am after picking up speed on a 900-mile track across the Pacific, the US navy’s warning centre, JTWC, in Honolulu, calculated its winds to be gusting at up to 235mph (380kph).

            This would make it the fourth most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded and possibly the strongest to have ever hit land. By comparison, St Jude, the storm that hit in southern England last month, had winds gusting to 99mph.”

            see :

            http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/08/typhoon-haiyan-biggest-storms

            and

            http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/520745/20131109/yolanda-haiyan.htm#.UoFydZQpbY0

          13. Concerned Avatar
            Concerned

            I give up.

          14. Keith Avatar
            Keith

            So does that mean the facts are not to your liking, so you’ll deny them? If so you are back to the Tea Party.

          15. Concerned Avatar
            Concerned

            You work it out.

          16. Keith Avatar
            Keith

            I guess you probably won’t read this, but Climate Code Red has a pretty comprehensive set of links about the current situation in the Philippines, including data (again facts!!) from Munich Re concerning extreme weather damage in the region in recent decades.

            http://www.climatecodered.org/ (see Nov 12 feature story, and if you read on you get Munich Re statement Nov 11 about Eastern Asia)

            The science is actually pretty basic …. hot water and hot air means lots of energy available to create chaos and lots of water in the atmosphere to create major floods.

            The Filipino delegate at the Warsaw meeting has tried to get the attention of the world away from myopic consideration of short term national issues. I fear we are just a bunch of frogs slowly cooking in the cauldron.

          17. Concerned Avatar
            Concerned

            I have no idea why you do not understand the difference between facts and opinions.Your problem.

            However this may help you on your way.

            http://www.lib.berkeley.edu/TeachingLib/Guides/Internet/Evaluate.html

          18. Keith Avatar
            Keith

            I’m not the one starting from a position and sifting the facts (denying most) to fit with your world view.

            Which bits of the factual data from Munich Re are opinions?

            The only opinion in my last post was to conclude that in denying the factual situation we behave like frogs in a slowing heating up cauldron.

          19. Concerned Avatar
            Concerned

            I find it amazing that you actually quoted an insurance
            company, I would have thought they would have been in the same league of the
            evil of that Mr Murdoch.

            We’ve all read that particular publication, and similar ones.
            Unfortunately their conclusions have nothing to do with reality nor established
            empirical evidence. They are a reinsurance company chasing business. Please not
            confuse opinion with facts.There are no facts,or empirical evidence backing up their opinions.
            If you want real evidence look a t the BOM ,who keep real records.

            Firstly, expert evidence given to the Joint Sittings of
            Parliament several months ago by, the actuaries from the major insurers in
            Australia, gave evidence that such projections are utter nonsense. Suggest you
            do research and actually look at their evidence.

            More information, is that the capital pool under pinning the
            reinsurance market in the South East Asian area has increased by 50% in the last
            five years. It

            Against earlier predictions that reinsurance premiums would
            rise for 2014, Australian insurers and Asian insurers have been able to secure
            lower prices to cover themselves for any catastrophes.

            Evidence as to the nonsense given in that article, show that
            the reinsurance market has advised that global insurance claim events in the
            first half of 2013 were running below the 10 year average.

            Other facts which you may consider is that these events are
            first, multifaceted and interrelated.

            The actual facts are that these events are now better reported,
            than they were, and there has been massive population growth and changes in
            land use patterns and this has increased vulnerability to these problems.

            If you actually researched the database of these events from
            1980 to 2009, you would find that the systematic literature review shows that
            these events have not changed in that time, merely better reporting and
            record-keeping is in place. Please refer to DF0 reporting beginning in 1985.

            Findings from the actual facts are consistent with previous
            observations that problems vary by region, economic development and severity of
            the event.

            Actual facts show that the impact of the events are due to
            population growth, urbanisation, land use change, et cetera.

            Suggest that you work out how to see the difference between
            facts, opinion and hearsay, and biased webs sites.
            As for science, it is a changing scenario.

            Please, go away.

          20. Keith Avatar
            Keith

            OK Insurance companies survive by getting their risk calculations accurate … otherwise they go out of business.

            This is quite different to Mr Murdoch who has the fossil fuel industry to support. The Murdoch press produces the most outrageous nonsense consistently.

            As to “there has been no change, it’s all about population density etc” try the Philippines : last year (2012) Bopha (most costly typhoon ever), now 2013 Haiyan … bigger still… that’s 2 really rare events back to back.
            Or floods up the east coast of Australia where bridges have been washed out and rebuilt twice in 3 years… I think the planners are getting the message that a 1 in 100 year event isn’t that rare any more.

            But I guess you just want to bury facts in a myriad of obfuscation so you don’t have to face them.
            Fortunately the rest of the world is starting to pay attention.

        2. Concerned Avatar
          Concerned

          And here is an indication of the increasing Cyclone problem in Qld.

          https://www.dropbox.com/s/fp39nx1h0jk5sr1/QLD%20Tropical%20Cyclone%20Trends.pdf

          1. Keith Avatar
            Keith

            The report on cyclone trends makes a number of critical points.
            Just like with bushfires, what actually starts a cyclone is complex and it may be very hard to say that any cyclone was caused by climate change.
            The important issue that is often overlooked in the heat of debate is that key metrics for damaging cyclones (similar argument for fires, see my comment above) is that climate is changing the starting conditions. There doesn’t need to be an increase in cyclones if the intensity of each is that much more damaging. For cyclones I think the following are crucial (see the link you sent):
            i) sea level rise : rising sea levels must have an impact on coastal damage. It looks like sea level storm surges are the cause of major loss of life in Haiyan (like a tsunami) … this is qualitatively different and starting to be a pattern (think Hurricane Sandy)
            ii) Increased energy : this means stronger winds. Again Haiyan looks like breaking through records. With so much heat going into the oceans, this will power cyclones.
            iii) More water in a warmer atmosphere : leads to massive rainfall events in very short time periods.

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