How Abbott reversed energy emissions cuts, boosted coal power

The downward trajectory in Australia’s electricity sector emissions, achieved before and during the brief existence of the carbon pricing scheme, has effectively been reversed under the Abbott government, a new report has found, as the nation’s coal-fired generators power up to meet increasing consumer demand.

The latest Cedex report from carbon emissions analysts pitt&sherry has also confirmed that the “historically unprecedented” era of falling electricity demand seems, after four-and-a-half years, to be coming to an end, under a government that has done little to encourage energy efficiency, and even less to support the addition of renewable generation capacity.

According to the report, released on Monday, total electricity emissions in the NEM increased by 6.4 Mt CO2-e – or 4.3 per cent, and a little over 1 per cent of total national emissions – in the year to June 30 2015, compared with the year to June 2014.

As the report notes, and the table below illustrates clearly, the latest Cedex data reinforces what it has been reporting for most of its three years of emissions updates: “that the carbon price had very little direct effect on demand for electricity, but a very big effect on emissions from the generators supplying demand.”

Screen Shot 2015-07-06 at 2.18.31 pm

 

And now, the removal of the carbon price – it was abolished by the Abbott government almost exactly a year ago – is one of the factors supporting a return to increasing electricity demand; particularly, as you can see in the second graph, from black and brown coal generators.

Screen Shot 2015-07-06 at 2.16.39 pm

According to the report, the black coal share of total sent out generation increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.5 per cent and the share of brown coal by 2.1 percentage points to 24.3 per cent. The total coal share in the year to June 2015 was 75.8 per cent, well above its share of 72.7 per cent in the year to June 2014, but below the 78.1 per cent level in the year to June 2012, on the eve of the carbon price.

As the graph shows, and the report notes, the emissions reduction during the carbon price period was mainly due to hydro generation replacing brown coal generation – a trend that was driven by the commercial strategies of Hydro Tasmania and Snowy Hydro.

But over the next year, the report says, coal seems certain to increase its share at the expense of gas, while wind generation “will inevitably stagnate” due to the lack of new construction over the past two years, due to extended policy uncertainty.

Over the past 12 months, it says, the share of gas generation fell slightly, to 11.9 per cent, and seems almost certain to fall further. Hydro, meanwhile, fell very significantly over the past year, while wind generation increased steadily by 0.5 percentage points, to 5.4 per cent.

Meanwhile, general business and residential electricity demand in each of Queensland, NSW and Victoria, was higher in 2014-15 than in 2013-14, after falling in each of the previous four years in succession, the data shows (see chart 3, below).

Screen Shot 2015-07-06 at 2.41.24 pm

“These figures understate the rebound in what AEMO calls “underlying consumption” of electricity, because they do not include electricity supplied by embedded generation, most particularly rooftop PV,” the report notes.

“When these figures are added to demand supplied through the NEM, the turnaround in the total quantity of electricity being used by general business and residential consumers becomes sharper. According to AEMO’s figures, underlying consumption in the NEM fell by five years in a row, from 2009-10 to 2013-14, the last year by 2.1 per cent, but in 2014-15 is estimated by AEMO to have increased by 1.4 per cent.

“AEMO expects the new trend of slow growth in this demand to continue,” says the report, “and we see no reason to disagree with this assessment.”

This demand growth, the report adds, will likely provide a further stimulus to coal generation – in particular, black coal-fired generation in NSW.

“In summary, therefore, it seems as if the historically unprecedented era of falling electricity demand is, having lasted for four and a half years, now coming to an end,” the report concludes.

Comments

6 responses to “How Abbott reversed energy emissions cuts, boosted coal power”

  1. Chris Fraser Avatar
    Chris Fraser

    Clearly emissions have upticked since June 2014 the time the legislation was amended. Now we have historical proof … the Abbott Blip.

  2. Gerberaman Avatar
    Gerberaman

    This just makes me weep. What is this government doing to our country? In two years they have managed to undo a major positive trend, and push us back 5 years. And I’m sure if Abbott ever bothered to read this data he would be pleased with the results.

    1. Biologyteacher100 Avatar
      Biologyteacher100

      This sad and it is a global problem.

  3. nakedChimp Avatar
    nakedChimp

    I’m pretty sure that the gas terminal in QLD is responsible for the big uptick.. what about the small NSW uptick, what was switched ON down there?
    All other states flatline or keep going down, nice.

    Overall: people will keep installing solar if it reduces their bills.

  4. Humanitarian Solar Avatar
    Humanitarian Solar

    What’s happening is while 20 cent and 60 cent solar households remain on these subsidised tariffs, there’s little creative motivation of many leaders to nurture PV/storage applications, hence slowing solar penetration. PV/storage is one of the most easily accessible ways to increase people power by people voting with their feet and really becoming a community to be reckoned with. It’s an analysis by paralysis of many intellectuals looking globally and failing to get their feet on the earth and act locally. Fortunately electrons resist transmission over distance and the rise of the local electron is inevitable. The physics of electricity will win over disempowered intellects who project their woes out into their environment. The disempowered global metaprogram many of the reporters on this site are running needs to be identified and stop. Instead focus on finding approaches and people that can genuinely moving your community forward.

  5. Malcolm M Avatar
    Malcolm M

    While this news suits the position of the Renew Economy website, I don’t think it’s all bad news.
    1. Low power prices are leading to the closure of coal-fired power stations in NSW (Redbank, 150 MW), Vic (Anglesea, 150 MW) and SA (Northern, 520 MW, but rarely producing more than 400 MW). These closures are not yet reflected in the statistics.
    2. Some of the reduced greenhouse gas emissions of the carbon tax period were artificial and not sustainable in the long term, because they were achieved by running down hydro storages. The Gordon dam and Great Lake in Tasmania are now close to their low supply level, and unlikely to come back to more normal levels for several years yet because of an El Nino reducing inflows, and with renewable energy certificate prices at an all-time high the incentive will be to use the water for power production almost as soon as it is available.
    3. The effect of recent additions to the renewable energy power station fleet are not yet reflected in the statistics, such as Nyngan solar (102 MW) and Bald Hills wind farm (107 MW), both of which opened late in the financial year.
    4. Some of the increased electricity demand is because of LNG export from Queensland, which was entirely foreseeable and would not have been altered through a carbon tax. The real story will be whether households increase their energy consumption, perhaps through becoming weary of the climate change message.
    Nevertheless there are still some increases in emissions that are already locked in. As Queensland starts to export LNG, some of the ramp gas available at low prices and used for base load power production will instead be diverted for export, with the gap in production being filled by restarting some existing coal-fired power stations such as Tarong.
    The longer term good news is that with agreement on the RET there will be more wind and solar power feeding into the grid, which will place further financial pressure on the coal generators.

Get up to 3 quotes from pre-vetted solar (and battery) installers.