Reports have surfaced in China that Beijing may ask local governments to ensure that up to 10 per cent of power consumption in their regions come from renewable energy sources – by 2015.
The new rules come as China ramps up its plans to install at least 13GW of solar in 2014, and lift its total capacity to more than 100GW by 2020, when it will also have more than 200GW of wind power.
Some organisations such as think it will do much better than that – reaching 150GWÂ of solar by 2020, according to analysts Asia Europe Clean Energy Advisory Co. Â The International Energy Agency suggests China could have more than 1,700GW of solar installed by 2050 – or around 21 per cent of total generation in what will be the world’s biggest energy market.
The South China Morning Post reported on Monday that China’s central government circulated a consultation paper among industry players earlier this month. The paper, from China’s National Energy Administration under the National Development and Reform Commission,has proposed to use a carrot-and-stick approach to ensure that by next year, at least 2-10 per cent of electricity consumption in regional governments’ jurisdictions came from non-hydro renewable energy sources – mostly wind, solar and biomass.
The paper said the quotas would vary according to a region’s resource profile, with the northeastern, northwestern and some northern provinces subject to 10 per cent, while the southern and central regions set to bear lighter quotas of 2 to 4 per cent.
For 2020, the proposed quotas will be raised to 5 to 13 per cent. If implemented, the quotas would see non-hydro renewable energy take up 5.5 per cent of the mainland’s electricity consumption next year and 8.5 per cent in 2020, compared with 2.7 per cent last year.
As for the “carrot-and-stick” part of the deal, it seems it will be down to the grid operators to ensure the quotas are met. Says the Post: “Regions failing to meet their quotas might face suspension or a reduction of approvals by the energy agency for new fossil fuel power generation projects, the circular said.
Grid companies that failed to connect new renewables capacity to their networks within the specified time frames, and/or failed to fully absorb generators’ output, would have to compensate generators for losses. While regions that meet or exceed their minimum quotas will be given priorities in building new projects and receiving government funds for grid construction, promotion of renewable projects and technology development.
China aims to have more than 100GW of installed solar capacity and 200GW of installed wind power capacity by 2020, as part of its next 5-year development plan, according to sources from the National Energy Administration.
But according to the latest hi-renewables scenario from the International Energy Agency, solar photovoltaic (PV) systems could generate up to 16 per cent of the world’s electricity by 2050, with China owning a 35 per cent share of the total PV electricity production, or nearly 4,000 TWh of installed solar PV.
Meanwhile, according to statistics published by the National Energy Administration (NEA) in late April, China’s western Gansu Province – whose 12th five-year plan calls for 5MW by 2015 – has taken the lead in China, installing 3.8GW so far in 2014, representing roughly an 800 per cent increase YoY and amounting to a cumulative installed capacity of 4.31GW.
By the end of 2013, installed PV power plants represented around 12 per cent of Gansu’s total power generation capacity, ranking fourth after coal (46%), hydro (21%), and wind (20%).
An installed 4,31GW managed to contribute 15-16% of electricity which constitutes an increase of 510% YoY.
